this post was submitted on 17 Jun 2023
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The blackout probably won't result in Reddit failing, but he has to realize that if he keeps this up, it's only going to take some aspiring programmers/designers some time to develop more Reddit alternatives, and when one of them becomes viable, down goes Reddit.
That's the thing. Reddit will live on for quite some time, but enough damage has been done to position alternatives as the better choice.
I personally think it will be a combination of all these fediverse sites.
Imagine having your own personal site connected to Lemmy, Kbin, and everyone else's personal sites.
It's pretty incredible.
That does sound quite exciting when you put it that way. (Also yay, this is my first post!)
Welcome aboard!
Oh oh! I too just arrived
Welcome friends! Make yourselves at home.
I honestly don't think people need to sell Lemmy like this.
The vast majority of users are not going to care at all about the fediverse. They just want a site that works like Reddit, and lemmy will give that to them. Personally, I think that within the next year or so, one or two instances are going to become the predominant ones and eventually close themselves off from the rest to better control the content.
I don't think they will close themselves off. I think we will see three 'levels' of instance. The big core instances (a handful) which have dedicated teams running everything (might be volunteer, might be staff), a fairly large smattering of small instances ran by corps (the fedverse is a social media platform after all), as well smaller groups of like-minded people (eg beehaw or lemmygrad), and lastly the hobbyist who want to self host.
I don't think 99.9% of people care about the extra depth of Lemmy, or anything else like this. In fact the extra layer of complexity makes me think nothing like Lemmy will replace Reddit because people don't want to put in the extra effort to learn about instances and federation.
I'll be shocked if any instance hits a million people in the next few years
To a "normal" user, a Lemmy (or any federated) instance is just another Reddit-like site.
If a user signs up and see content in their feed, why do they need to care about federation?
The federated system gives "normal" users the content they want, and "technical" users the ability to self-host and connect to other federated servers.
I think a handful of popular federated instances will see the majority of Reddit emigrants who don't need/care to know about how federation works.
I mean yeah, it looks to be mostly that way with Lemmy.World
Any instance hitting one million is unlikely, on the mere grounds of trying to make one super instance is kind of the opposite of the goal of federation. The winning would be reaching a million members between all instances.
It seems to me that you've done the math...
undefined> I personally think it will be a combination of all these fediverse sites.
Good point. I think that It'll be the combination of these things that'll hurt them the most...
Just put a > before the text to quote it, just like reddit. I dunno why it sticks "undefined" in there like that.