this post was submitted on 14 May 2026
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as you said the eu has no energy, so it's only a matter of time with the sanctions game. they are already quietly opening up to russian energy again. i think it's a matter of how they worm their way around us influence, like any of the us vassals.
as for taiwan, the us recently sent literal billions in weapons and some taiwanese politicians are already openly talking about not turning into an ukraine situation with those, which means there might be significant popular support for that idea. they are constantly provoking. not to mention the "military exercises" they like to do in the region.
i'm not optimistic about their nukes at all, however with nuclear weapons we sadly don't have the power of hindsight, but we can see what they do out of desperation in the new war on iran. really brings out the existential dread, so we get the real feeling of a cold war.
in a way, some of the things you predict will happen in the future are already happening now.