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U.S. likely to tighten tech curbs as China advances chip production
(www.japantimes.co.jp)
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this post was submitted on 20 Sep 2023
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This is all pure economics the strategic importance of small nodes is highly overrated, even more so than the importance of chip design is underrated.
Sure TSMC leads when it comes to node size, but that node size doesn't even come close to being optimal when it comes to costs per transistor. No military is prevented from building rocket control systems, no weather service is prevented from building supercomputers, by not having access to 5nm. Certainly no government is prevented from having secure communications, home-brew PCs for civil servant desks, etc, by not having access.
The new plant in Europe that TSMC is building with Bosch, NXP, and Infinion is going to go down to 12nm -- about the optimum when it comes to price per transistor. Neither of the three companies has any interest in challenging Intel or AMD on the desktop market, it's all about automotive and industry applications: If Bosch wants to sell you a thingie with tons of their sensors in it pretty much the only thing they don't produce themselves right now is a CPU to connect it all up (that isn't a microcontroller), and 12nm are plenty for such applications. For a sense of scale: The BCM2711, the SOC in a Rasberry Pi 4, is made in 28nm. 12nm is roughly Zen1 or NVidia Turing class (e.g. 2080Ti). Bosch themselves are sticking with much larger nodes because they're into MEMS and stuff, there's e.g. basically no smartphone in the world that doesn't use one of their accelerometers. "Price per transistor" isn't really the right metric, there, it's about mechanics, not transistors.
Another thing might play into things: SMIC has been spying on TSMC heavily, it's kind of like their favourite past-time. They might already have stolen all the knowledge they need to copy TSMC's newest nodes, the people in charge of deciding these things know, and all this sanction stuff is to keep the Chinese from benefitting economically from that. It might be that neither Taiwan nor the US would care had the Chinese actually developed their own shit -- which they're now forced to do without access to EUV. I very much doubt than small nodes without EUV will be price-competetive, though.