In the spring of 2020, as the gravity and extent of the pandemic’s disruptions sank in, the chorus began. “New York City is dead forever,” one prominent commentator wrote. “San Francisco is the next Detroit — the handwriting is on the wall,” another declared. Urban office towers stood empty, downtown streets were deserted and doomsday forecasts abounded. With the rise of work-from-home, the cynics insisted, we were witnessing the beginning of the end of America’s dense, vibrant, economically essential cities.
Without a doubt, the pandemic and its aftermath have brought serious challenges to America’s cities. Yet these dramatic exhortations of impending urban doom, so confidently asserted at the time by so many, turned out to be completely wrong.
Five years on, American cities have bounced back dramatically. According to newly released Census data, nearly 95% of America’s largest cities — 68 out of 72 — experienced population growth between July 2023 and June 2024, reversing downward trends from earlier in the decade. Los Angeles added more than 30,000 residents; Chicago gained more than 20,000; Seattle added more than 16,000; and Washington, DC, gained 15,000. Even Detroit — a city that was portrayed as the veritable poster child of urban decline — added more than 6,500 new residents.
New York City led the resurgence, adding more than 85,000 residents — the largest numeric increase nationwide — though the city is still down around 300,000 residents from its pre-pandemic peak.
Let me be clear: I am not arguing that America’s big cities writ large are beyond their many challenges — far from it. Crime may be down, but it is still too high, and urban disorder plagues many cities. Urban schools may be improving, but they still have a long way to go. Downtowns continue to face high office vacancies, and many will never recover. Housing is less affordable than ever, not just for the truly disadvantaged but for the middle and professional classes. Government spending is inefficient and taxes are too high. Families with children continue to decamp to the suburbs, leaving too many cities as playgrounds for the affluent, the young and the childless — and as places for the disadvantaged to find services.
Yet none of this has added up to an irrevocable downward spiral or an urban doom loop.