I see a crypto bubble right next to the AI bubble
this post was submitted on 18 Jul 2025
88 points (100.0% liked)
technology
23876 readers
236 users here now
On the road to fully automated luxury gay space communism.
Spreading Linux propaganda since 2020
- Ways to run Microsoft/Adobe and more on Linux
- The Ultimate FOSS Guide For Android
- Great libre software on Windows
- Hey you, the lib still using Chrome. Read this post!
Rules:
- 1. Obviously abide by the sitewide code of conduct. Bigotry will be met with an immediate ban
- 2. This community is about technology. Offtopic is permitted as long as it is kept in the comment sections
- 3. Although this is not /c/libre, FOSS related posting is tolerated, and even welcome in the case of effort posts
- 4. We believe technology should be liberating. As such, avoid promoting proprietary and/or bourgeois technology
- 5. Explanatory posts to correct the potential mistakes a comrade made in a post of their own are allowed, as long as they remain respectful
- 6. No crypto (Bitcoin, NFT, etc.) speculation, unless it is purely informative and not too cringe
- 7. Absolutely no tech bro shit. If you have a good opinion of Silicon Valley billionaires please manifest yourself so we can ban you.
founded 5 years ago
MODERATORS
The LLM hype is as big as it is only because of capital's disdain for labour. None of these big AI conpanies have come close to turning a profit. They even have subscriptions now that cost $200 a month and they lose money on those too given that the user actually uses their service. But the promise of taking out of the equation the pesky labourer with silly demands like food and a house is too seductive for investors and this is the closest they have come so far to fulfilling their fantasy. So expect this to go on for a while.
"We will save on cost by not hiring any human workers."
"But if you don't give a wage to anyone, who will buy what you sell?" 
The stock market has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions 
But seriously a big difference I see is the level of influence and govt/military association many of these companies have. Google might be more overvalued than AOL was, but how many DoD contracts did AOL have? I can't buy that the US would let these companies crater when American military supremacy (or at least its pretense, which is about just as important) depends on it
This + housing debt crisis will go hard
the problem is like open ai burns 5 billion a year. dod can easily smother it with money to post about china or whatever. apple/microsoft/google do be posting record profits, the nvidia is highly speculative but at the same time (on its own) not that unreasonable (the growth is fast, if demand doesn't implode, so won't nvidia)
The industry as a whole is putting trillions of dollars into figuring out how to automate cognitive labor so they can lay off all their employees and sell everyone else AI employees. Last year the industry as a whole was $600 billion in the ground, as in they'd need to earn that much to break even on the cost. This year it's ballooned far far further.
general purpose gpu accelerators aren't that shit, they could always pivot to selling to dod to model small nuke exploding three gorges dam or whatever stem freaks in usa do. (and nvidia revenue was 120 billion, did they really burn 480 on electricity/supporting equipment?)
Nvidia is selling shovels during a gold rush. Microsoft, Apple, Google, Samsung, Meta, Oracle, and so on are flying headlong into trying to build God
I should sell an AI program to a company where it's just me with like 5 laptops typing bullshit at people. Even a one year contract would net me hundreds of thousands and then boom, i disappear when they lawyers start calling.
This is just another cycle where investors steal public money by pumping up a market, pulling the rug, and then receiving more public money in a bail-out.
The vast majority of stock price is future earnings expectations, not just over the next year but over several years. If the market thinks the profits are coming, it can go higher. I also don't think this is worse than the dot com bubble in terms of valuations. It's well into bubble territory though and will eventually pop. But S&P 500 may or may not go to 8000 first.