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this post was submitted on 08 Jul 2024
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This feels like the dot com bubble all over again.
I dont really think so. I mean yea, too much money gets dumped into AI, but the dot com comparison doesn't really work. The dot com bubble burst because investors realized that a ton of small companies(aunt-emmas-flowers.com or something), had no strategies and unsustainable business models. They were all massively overvalued. But Microsoft, Google, Tencent, Baidu are all large companies, they aren't comparable and unlikely to suffer much if one of their investment fail. Additionally, AI is incredibly young and essentially still in beta, just because it works and can be used (and be profited from) doesn't mean the current versions are more than mometized research projects. Yes that's a problem if these are sold as full products, but that's want they are. All users are currently testers for the AI companies. A lot of companies managed to get some of that sweet VC but that's always been possible with the hype of that time. Now its just AI, gullible Investors have lost money since the invention of investing.
Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think there are too many highly valued startups out there with an AI bent. The gain in stock value has been mostly the big boys. In the dot com era you had tons of hyped IPOs of companies whose stock valuations went to the moon. That doesn’t seem to be the case today.
Yes, the rot is mostly centralized in a few monopolistic companies with outsized economic influence. That's why the crash will be much worse.
Oh boy, I can’t wait until we bail out the tech giants because they’re too big to fail.