this post was submitted on 07 Jul 2025
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Historical and material reality.
The US didn't appear as a magician on the scene out of nowhere. It invaded western Europe not to defeat Nazis but to ensure the survival of western European capital, under new management of course. With US troops and guns at their backs they were spared their people being liberated by socialism, in exchange fealty was given to the US.
Quite honestly the US is a product of and beneficiary of CENTURIES of European colonialism. Russia cannot reproduce that in a day or a decade.
The wealth, power, geopolitical control, cultural dominance and propaganda hegemony the US enjoys was built off those European empires, their looted wealth, and their influence. Was built off cooperation with the British who in the post-colonial moment of WW2 still had deep penetration of many societies, governments, etc.
Even assuming the US suffers a huge fall in a few years the lingering tendrils of its cultural influence and dominance will be fighting it out with Russian and Chinese influence for many years if not decades to come.
In other words Rome was not built in a day, the US did not morph magically into an omni-power empire in a year or a decade out of nowhere. And Russia cannot do the same.
Western Europe did not resist US imposition as it came as a rescue, they will likely resist joining with or being dominated by Russia to form a new bloc to subjugate the world.
One strong, all-powerful enemy or a bunch of enemies in disarray with shifting alliances, backstabbing, and various weaknesses and uncertainty. In the latter situation one can even bargain with imperial powers scrambling for influence a socialist in some cases because of their weakened state being but one of many smaller fish.
Nobody is suggesting that Russia will become an imperialist power in the course of a day or even a few years. Rather, what is being suggested is that Russia will become one after a difficult series of armed conflicts, annexations, etc. etc. Looking at Nazi Germany, it went from being a defeated imperialist power with practically no sphere of influence to one which conquered nearly all of Europe and waged war in multiple continents in the course of a few years.
Let us no forget that the Russian state was born out of reaction to a similar extent the EU countries were, coming out of the restoration of capitalism in the USSR and rise of the new Soviet bourgeoisie, its undemocratic and illegal dissolution, the rapid introduction of neoliberal "shocktherapy" under Yeltsin, the events of 1993, etc. This state is obviously and backwards force with horrible origins and so it becoming imperialist is not far away to say the least.
For me, Russia is more likely heading back to Socialism rather than turning imperialist if you check the material conditions within the country and external. Some internal conditions mentioned in this post are the following:
the share of supporters of socialism has grown from 26 to 43%, while support for the capitalist model has fallen to 15%
Despite the fact that they only know the pioneers from the stories of the older generation, two-thirds of young people are in favor of their return.
For Russia to turn imperialist lots of conditions(happy paths if we use the programming meaning) have to happen before we even consider this a possibility. For me, it is harder to see these possibilities come true knowing that the better route of socialist development is a more favorable view for the common Russian citizen.
Also, let's be real here... If we have the time to only think in the worst possible scenarios, we should also give ourselves time to think in the other more realistic scenarios which is socialism returning to Russia.
It's more likely that Russia is heading in short term not to socialism but to something reminiscent of July Monarchy, where it remains capitalist, but allows significant concessions for socialism.
If we weigh correctly all of the internal and external conditions within Russia, the possibility tilts much more favorably to Russia returning to Socialism than to a reminiscent July Monarchy as you suggested. Capitalism by nature is unsustainable and a monarchy even more. Adding to that, comrades in Russia are working hard to raise the class consciousness of their people and we are seeing plenty of qualitative changes mounting up.
Anyway, Russians are more warm to the idea of returning to the USSR rather than a Tsarist regime. If people wanted a Tsarist(monarchist) regime again, we wouldn't have beautiful pictures like this one:
I'm not saying literal monarchy, but similar uneasy compromise with "accepting the revolution of the past" made by reactionaries to stave off a new revolution.
Without the material extraction or support of an imperialist country, it is downright impossible to achieve that compromise that you are speculating. Besides that, we have to add into the mix that the external AES countries are growing more and more prosperous and their youth are having active exchanges with the Russians.
Also, the revolutionary momentum in Russia is only getting hotter now that interactions with AES is consolidating and permeating in all of the russian working class.
It is possible, but it would not be long-lasting, and there is a high probability of a new revolution (just like historical July Monarchy, which lasted for 18 years).