You missed a third option;

"Just dive in you nerd."

I started with PopOS. Didn't like so many decisions being made for me so I started using Arch instead. Easy customization. Got tired of breaking systems. Jumped to Debian Testing. I think I'm settled.

Honestly from experience I've learnt that the yes answer also usually applies to the no answer because it's important to everyone. Advanced users tend to hit advanced issues and surprise, surprise, then community size matters all the same!

So since Linux is highly customizable and the choice of e.g. desktop environment matters little (just install whatever you want on any distro, including DE), community size is the most hard-earned property and thus usually trumps all.

So I personally try to keep closest to upstream regardless experienced or less experienced users => Debian if you adore those DEB packages and management, Fedora if you love those RPM packages and management, indie ones for indie packages e.g. Alpine, Arch... If you still run into issues it's usually you, not the distro because it's already battle hardened. :) But no worries, then you'll find a lot of help and the problem has usually already even been discussed and is googleable! It's 2023, none of the huge distros are plain shit and annoying, that's been ironed out like a decade ago. So just go with a (big) flow somewhere.

Started with Ubuntu ended up with arch

(Web developer) I distro-hopped for years, after discovering Ubuntu 8.10 (OpenSUSE, Fedora, Linux Mint, Ubuntu Mate,Manjaro, Ubuntu Budgie, etc). Then left Linux altogether for some time. 4 years ago returned to Kubuntu, using only LTS. My best Linux experience ever. Until yesterday, when I installed Debian 12. Hated Gnome before (I don't remember why), but not anymore, the stability is astounding.

I've used 10 distros since 2008, all of as main system. I agree with you, but I think everyone should try a few distros until they find the right one for them.