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this post was submitted on 16 Apr 2024
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An intra-ship propellant transfer test was conducted on IFT-3. Inter-ship propellant transfer tests NET 2025.
I expect launch launch cadence will be sigmoidal, not linear. Exponential at first, then levelling off with market saturation.
S29 through S32 are the last of Starship V1, and I think there is a good chance they will have all launched by the end of this year. I don't see SpaceX taking a long break between V1 and V2, especially as pathfinder components for V2 have already been spotted.
SpaceX stretched Falcon 9 too, and nearly doubled the payload capacity between the original Falcon 9 v1.0 and today's Falcon 9 v1.2 Block 5 fuller-er-est thrust Version 7™. I'm no rocket scientist either, but I don't think it is too unlikely that they can make similar optimizations with Starship.
NASA and SpaceX jointly tested the docking system a couple months ago.
Overall, you seem a tad overly pessimistic, which is fine. I just hope you are not underinformed or misinformed.
Which is "not yet". We'll have to see if this actually happens.
Again, we'll see.
That's good to hear at least.
Assuming you mean the v1.1 (1.0 is about half as tall), the main difference between those models is in the engines, which are running at design-specs in the newer model. Starship's engines are, according to many many comments by musk, already running optimally. Although I grant you that might have been a lie.
Nice. Glad to see they picked up the slack in the time since the GAO report.
I'm very pessimistic, and the massive delays extending the original schedule seem to warrant my pessimism. Remember that HLS doesn't even exist yet, and musk has a long trackrecord of broken promises.
The fact that NASA wrote a second lunar lander contract makes it seem like they're pretty pessimistic too.