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this post was submitted on 25 May 2024
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Ray Kurzweil has a phenomenal record of making predictions. He's like 90% or something and has been saying AGI by 2029 for something like 30+ years. Last I heard, he is sticking with it, but he admits he may be a year or two off in either direction. AGI is a pretty broad term, but if you take it as "better than nearly every human in every field of expertise," then I think 2029 is quite reasonable.
That’s not very far in the future, so it’s going to be really exciting to see how that works out.
Maybe only 51% of the code it writes needs to be good before it can self-improve. In which case, we're nearly there!
We are already past that. The 48% is from a version of chatgpt(3.5) that came out a year ago, there has been lots of progress since then.