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this post was submitted on 25 May 2024
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I'm honestly a bit jealous of you. You are going to be so amazed when you realise this stuff is just barely getting started. It's insane what people are already building with agents. Once this stuff gets mainstream, and specialized hardware hits the market, our current paradigm is going to seem like silent black and white films compared to what will be going on. By 2030 we will feel like 2020 was half a century ago at least.
Looking forward to it, but won’t be disappointed if it takes a bit longer than expected.
Ray Kurzweil has a phenomenal record of making predictions. He's like 90% or something and has been saying AGI by 2029 for something like 30+ years. Last I heard, he is sticking with it, but he admits he may be a year or two off in either direction. AGI is a pretty broad term, but if you take it as "better than nearly every human in every field of expertise," then I think 2029 is quite reasonable.
That’s not very far in the future, so it’s going to be really exciting to see how that works out.
Maybe only 51% of the code it writes needs to be good before it can self-improve. In which case, we're nearly there!
We are already past that. The 48% is from a version of chatgpt(3.5) that came out a year ago, there has been lots of progress since then.