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this post was submitted on 05 Jun 2024
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This is the best summary I could come up with:
Indian PM Narendra Modi has won a third consecutive term in a much tighter general election than anticipated.His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) looks set to fall short of a majority and is leading in the 543-seat parliament, below the required 272 seats.
Despite the BJP emerging as the single largest party, the burden of hype and expectations has left many of their supporters disheartened.Mr Modi's supporters believe securing a third term can be attributed to several factors: a record of stable governance, the appeal of continuity, efficient welfare programmes, and the perception that he has enhanced India's global image.To his Hindu nationalist base, Mr Modi delivered on key manifesto promises: revoking the autonomy of Indian-administered Kashmir, building the Ram temple in Ayodhya and implementing a controversial citizenship law.
The BJP's significant drop in seats may be linked to joblessness, rising prices, growing inequality and a controversial army recruitment reform, among other things.
Mr Modi's harsh and divisive campaign, particularly targeting Muslims, could also have alienated voters in some regions.His ambitious slogan "Ab ki baar, 400 paar," aiming for more than 400 seats for his NDA alliance, may have backfired, with such a massive majority raising fears of constitutional changes among the poor.Mr Modi’s party faced its largest setback in Uttar Pradesh (UP), a state larger than the United Kingdom and three times as populous.
This offers renewed hope to the opposition.A return to coalition politicsIndia has a history of chaotic coalition governments, although some in the early 1990s and 2000s played a significant role in implementing economic reforms.If the BJP forms the government, it will be dependent on allies and will need to adopt a more consultative and deliberative approach.This dependency makes it vulnerable to collapse if allies feel neglected.
In February, the diverse coalition known as INDIA, short for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, faced turmoil when one of its key leaders, Nitish Kumar, exited - only to later rejoin the BJP.But led by Rahul Gandhi, the opposition ran a spirited campaign and narrowed the gap, in the face of a partisan media and despite fewer resources.There is more hope for them ahead.
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