I feel like not enough people know why we're even hearing about this issue. In 2019, a conservative think tank did focus groups and figured out that trans women and girls competing in sports against cis women and girls would be the most upsetting social issue for middle class suburban women and conservative democrats. It did better at swaying votes than any economic issue, and tested well in local elections, so they took it to the national scale. It was never about the athletes.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/07/wedge-issue-dividing-trumpworld-392323

When Schilling considered the range of issues making centrist voters and suburban parents uncomfortable, the one that stood out to him was transgender rights: an issue that had largely been absorbed into the Democratic platform, but which he suspected many Americans were still processing themselves. But what was the right angle to take? Earlier that summer, American Principles Project had partnered with a behavioral science firm to assess whether focusing on transgender issues could turn educated suburbanites into Republican voters.

APP and its data partner, Evolving Strategies, analyzed how thousands of registered Kentucky voters reacted to different messages about what they described as Beshear’s “extreme” support for transgender rights. Should men be allowed to participate in sports events for women and girls? Andy Beshear thinks so. Should men be permitted to use women’s restrooms because they identify as transgender women? Andy Beshear thinks so.

“What we found was the sports issue got the most powerful response from people, specifically conservative Democrats and independents,” Schilling would explain to me later.

“We wanted Bevin to win, but more than anything, we wanted to test this out before trying it at a much larger scale. Now, donors understand that although we came up a few votes short in Kentucky, this can still work. This is persuasive,” Schilling said.