source of that image is also bad hxxps://waitbutwhy[.]com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html i think i've seen it listed on lessonline? can't remember

not only they seem like true believers, they are so for a decade at this point

In 2013, Vincent C. Müller and Nick Bostrom conducted a survey that asked hundreds of AI experts at a series of conferences the following question: “For the purposes of this question, assume that human scientific activity continues without major negative disruption. By what year would you see a (10% / 50% / 90%) probability for such HLMI4 to exist?” It asked them to name an optimistic year (one in which they believe there’s a 10% chance we’ll have AGI), a realistic guess (a year they believe there’s a 50% chance of AGI—i.e. after that year they think it’s more likely than not that we’ll have AGI), and a safe guess (the earliest year by which they can say with 90% certainty we’ll have AGI). Gathered together as one data set, here were the results:2

Median optimistic year (10% likelihood): 2022

Median realistic year (50% likelihood): 2040

Median pessimistic year (90% likelihood): 2075

just like fusion, it's gonna happen in next decade guys, trust me