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Climate Crisis, Biosphere & Societal Collapse
A place to share news, experiences and discussion about the continuing climate crisis, societal collapse, and biosphere collapse. Please be respectful of each other and remember the human.
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Useful Links:
Earth - A Global Map of Wind, Weather and Ocean Conditions - Use the menu at bottom left to toggle different views. For example, you can see where wildfires/smoke are by selecting "Chem - COsc" to see carbon monoxide (CO) surface concentration.
Climate Reanalyzer (University of Maine) - A source for daily updated average global air temps, sea surface temps, sea ice, weather and more.
National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (US) - Information about ENSO and weather predictions.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) Global Temperature Rankings Outlook (US) - Tool that is updated each month, concurrent with the release of the monthly global climate report.
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System - Government of Canada
Surging Seas Risk Zone Map - For discovering which areas could be underwater soon.
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Are there models for 3c or 4c? From what I see, the world ain't gonna do shit until entire countries become tangibly uninhabitable.
I doubt anything will happen even then.
Well, nothing useful at least – I'm sure that with the current meteoric rise of the extreme right many things will happen, but they'll be more of the "death camp" variety than the "fixing the climate" variety
edit: I think high-emission scenarios (ie scenarios that assume we're going to do jack fucking shit and emissions will keep rising, which frankly seems probable) have predicted average temperature rises of 4 – 5°C. I'm trying to dig up some sources, hang on
Revenge of the Edit:
the following refer to the global mean screen temperature[^1] at the end of the century for the most pessimistic SSPs[^2]
The Edit Strikes Back:
The IPCC's 6th Assessment Report (AR6) includes data from older and usually less sensitive versions (ie. very often more optimistic…) of the models above plus a ton of others, and its Physical Science Basis report's policymaker summary had this handy table:
Note that climate models are just that, models. We know they still have a lot of biases and they're not perfect, but they do already predict historical climate really well, and it should be telling that the better the models get, the worse the predictions tend to be
[^1]: temperature measured at a standardized height using a "Stevenson screen". Current global mean screen temperature is around 15°C [^2]: "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways", standardized modeling scenarios