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Trump wins.
(apnews.com)
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this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2024
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Called it, using Allan Lichtman's own 13 keys principle (in ways that he himself overlooked), and on a heavily downvoted comment.
Where I was wrong was with how narrow the result would he. It wasn't even Gore v Bush levels of close unlike when Lichtman's 13 keys prediction previously failed. Kamala lost the popular vote to a convicted felon that tried to usurp democracy and is the reason why abortion is no longer a federal right. The Republicans spent the last few weeks crapping on Haitians and Puerto Ricans, yet won some districts with large Latino populations.
This is what happens when Democrats ignore their voter base and choose a cabal of unpopular and uncharismatic candidates to carry the torch. The bar is now so low that we need James Cameron to venture out into the Mariana Trench and lift it back up again...
Harris was popular when she first announced. She then proceeded to run to the cold dead embrace of the Biden campaign.
Progressive policy is more popular than any candidate, if they focused on rent control, free healthcare, free childcare, free college and other immediate, material improvements to people's conditions, they'd have won in a landslide. Instead they abandoned the rest of the country to pursue the <10% of republicans who weren't in the bag for Trump.
I don't think she was popular when first announced, rather the fact that not-Biden was popular.
Absolutely.
I'm convinced that Biden would have won.
I personally believe that this is not Biden's or Kamala's fault. It's the old-school Democrat establishment's fault. They did Bernie dirty in 2016. And then they did the same to Biden in these elections. Lichtman predicted a Biden win, bad debate performance and all, and the dems fucked it up.
To be transparent, I still believed Lichtman when he said Harris would win. I will never believe in his stuff again, unless he adds new keys or something.
Yes. Every time, even in 2020 when the mood of the country was very different, they are afraid to run anything other than center-right candidates because they "aren't electable". Guess what - your corporatist center-right candidates are consistently priming people to receive the protectionist messages from the fascists, Maybe fucking try something different some time, fucking DNC!
OK, the next question is: How do we convey this to liberals who think we want the dems to lose?
In the words of my boomer mother, "Things aren't going to get better until the boomers die off."
It's probably not even boomers anymore. This community, full of everything from hardcore progressives to literal communists, has gone feral defending Harris's disaster of a campaign. You couldn't, and still can't, call the DNC out for running a horrible candidate with a horrible (nonexistent) platform without being called a troll or a Russian bot. The new generation fell for the two party system hook, line and sinker.
I think y'all just need to come to terms that America is further right than the Democrat party, and the Democratic party moving left is not going to help them.
How would we know that? They've never tried.
Because there's no point flirting with the non-existent further left.
Huh? Obama won by getting leftist votes so that clearly isn't true.
What leftist votes and in what numbers?
I mean look up Obama's presidential campaign. He flipped red states and won blue states by running on a progressive anti status quo platform, and in doing so wiped the floor with the Republican candidate.
Why would I look it up when I lived through it already. He ran a fairly standard Democratic campaign.
Huh???? Okay you gotta be shitting me. I'm not American so while I know that's impossible but I can't really refute their personal experience so can an American around here do it?
I'll just quote this: