All of those factors were going against the dems in 2022 and they still managed to outperform expectations. The Republicans have the bigots and the fundamentalists locked up. They have nothing else to offer to anyone else though. They have no legislative accomplishments, their last president (and current frontrunnner) seriously fucked up the response to the worst pandemic in 100 years, and then his supporters stormed Congress.

The average voter will put up with a lot but any one of those strikes would be enough to make them think twice, let alone three. There's no such thing as an undecided voter when Trump is in the race.