this post was submitted on 08 Apr 2025
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You are looking at the immediate impact of an outlier leadership rather than than the broader perspective. Fact of the matter is, the US is still the biggest market and still the leading country by long miles. I know the status of the US is under peril, but no country will surpass the US, nor will it even collapse in the more immediate future. Even the Republicans are pushing back since the market itself is getting affected. And you and I know what Republicans only care about.
Um. This isn't really an outlier leadership anymore. It's happened twice, and the vote in favor of it got bigger rather than smaller. Trump campaigned on doing this, and his vote share increased. A large proportion of Americans clearly want America First and America Alone, and maybe they don't understand the consequences of that, but that's what they want. I'm not saying the US is going to collapse, way too big of a bet to make, but to say no one will surpass the US in the near term... I dunno. I think you might be getting caught in American exceptionalism.
I think the world is reorienting itself. It's going to be very painful for us, but we'll get through it. And America will rattle its sabers and dream of Empire.
Who is going to surpass the US in two years in every metric? China is still a "second world" country and dependent on the West for many trades. And Russia is, well, very much past its prime; and after the war in Ukraine, the financial and social consequences will have both immediate and long term consequences for the country.
If the US power declines, and it is already happening, it will be gradual. It will not happen in five years but in another generation or two.