this post was submitted on 29 Apr 2025
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I think this isnt just a political move but a tactical one. Imagine your a ukrainian fighting non stop. Then this ceasefire happens and you get to breathe for a second. You get 3 days where your not fearing for your life 24/7. It shows you what peace could be like. Then your leaders try to say you need to keep fighting while they are refusing Russias permanent ceasefire option a few weeks later. All your gonna be thinking about is those 3 days, and how if theyd just agree you could have that again. The Ukrainians are conscripts. They arent a professional military mostly. So this sort of thing has a real chance of getting some of them to just straight up mutiny if the talks fall thru. Which puts even more pressure on the Ukrainians to take whatever deal is offered.
Also it gives Russia 3 days to resupply and regroup which they probably need having taken a lot of ground lately.
Sure, but the Ukrainians can use those 3 days to do the same thing. And the way things are, that means the Russian army loses momentum while Ukrainians gain respite (if they actually go for the ceasefire). Don't get me wrong, I agree with Putin's decision. It's the right thing to do, both morally and politically. Especially for the reasons to outline (but I think in Putin's mind he's just trying to present some good faith on Russia's behalf, and he's probably hoping there's no incident in Moscow while a bunch of BRICS leaders and other world leaders gather together). But militarily it might turn out to hurt the Russian effort more than it would help.