So the research into this is hilariously terrible. The podcast maintenance phase has a pretty good couple of episodes on just how fucking garbage the data on what being fat actually does to your health is. e.g. this one https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS8xNDExMTI2LnJzcw/episode/QnV6enNwcm91dC05NTUxNTU1

Outside of extremes by far the overwhelming factor in health outcomes is exercise

Yet when you go to the doctor how much time do they spend talking about your cardio routine vs popping you on the scales or talking about weight? Doctors also generally provide much worse care to fat people, and frequently blame unrelated medical conditions on weight. Further we have very little idea how to help people moderate their rate. It's not like tendon damage or whatever where we can prescribe a specific activity with good patient compliance and outcomes, mostly people just vaguely gesture at calorie restriction which almost nobody can sustain indefinitely.

So we really need better research and education here, and if you're worries about your health I'd say stop pinching your tummy in the mirror and start something like the couch to 5k program.