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submitted 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) by lil_tank@lemmygrad.ml to c/ukraine_war_news@lemmygrad.ml

So I've stumbled across this thing called Shpilkin method, a statistical model that pretends to quantity electoral fraud. I haven't found the precise model because all I get is media talking about it, there isn't even a Wikipedia article for this. Upon primary investigation I found multiple sketchy things.

  • It seems that the model is based on analysing voter turnout variation, however turnout is known to be affected by other factors such as people only caring about the biggest election
  • I haven't seen the model applied an compared to any other country than Russia, what if it would detect similar voter fraud in the "democratic west"?
  • The media covering this is really bad, the top results are radio free europe and some neolib pro nato french news outlet.
  • Mr Shpilkin apparently got rewards from some irrelevant "Liberal Front" and also got put on the list of foreign interference personalities by Russia

All I know about statistics is that you can make numbers say whatever you want. Is there anyone with education in the field that could evaluate how valid this whole thing is?

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[-] ledlecreeper27@lemmygrad.ml 4 points 4 months ago

I used a t-test to compare the election results for Putin to his approval ratings and found no significant difference, although a sample size of only 5 probably isn't very good for making conclusions.

this post was submitted on 22 Mar 2024
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