As it moves to transform U.S. relations with Russia, the Trump administration is talking with Moscow about readmitting potentially scores of Russian diplomats into the United States after years of expulsions.
But the good-will gesture, which would be reciprocated by Moscow, could be a kind of Trojan horse, experts and diplomats warn, as the Kremlin is likely to dispatch spies posing as diplomats to restore its diminished espionage capabilities within the United States.
Both sides say the move could pave the way for a broader peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine.
The renewed access, combined with Mr. Trump’s courtship of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, could spell opportunity for the Kremlin’s espionage apparatus at a time when Moscow’s operations against the West have grown more brazen [sic], according to intelligence experts and former officials.
The Trump administration has installed several officials sympathetic to Moscow’s worldview, raising questions about whether it will continue to prioritize counterintelligence operations against Russia. And the appointment of the political operative Kash Patel and the conservative media personality Dan Bongino atop the F.B.I. promises upheaval in the force whose counterintelligence division tracks Russian spies.
“If I were sitting in Yasenevo or Lubyanka and targeting Americans, I would be rubbing my hands with glee,” said Paul Kolbe, a senior fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard, referring to the headquarters of Russia’s foreign and domestic intelligence services.
The potential expansion of the Russian diplomatic footprint in the United States comes as Russia’s intelligence services have grown more brazen [sic] in their operations against the West.
Experts say the Kremlin would be eager to reverse a decade of U.S. action against its intelligence operatives working under diplomatic cover.
If expanded diplomatic ranks are tapped for espionage on both sides, Russia is expected to have an inherent advantage. Moscow is very aggressive about placing intelligence operatives under diplomatic cover abroad, said a former senior U.S. diplomat with Russia expertise.
It is also easier for Russian agents to operate in the United States than it is for U.S. officials to function in an authoritarian, wartime Russia, said Mr. Kolbe, who served for 25 years in the C.I.A.’s operations division.
“The Russian diplomatic presence will be heavily loaded with intelligence offers aiming to penetrate the American government and businesses,” he said. “They will have far more access and freedom of action than American diplomats in Moscow, who will contend with 24/7 physical and technical surveillance and harassment.”
The U.S.-Russia relationship deteriorated sharply after the Kremlin interfered in the 2016 presidential election.
Mr. Obama closed Russia’s waterfront properties in New York and Maryland because the Russians used them to evade American surveillance by having conversations on the beach, U.S. officials said.
Mr. Trump’s disruption of the federal work force could also benefit the Kremlin, Mr. Kolbe added.
“All the factors that create potentials for walk-ins or recruitment,” including political disaffection, ideological sympathy, money problems or being angry at bosses seem to be in play now, he said.