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Abstract

To calculate the additional copper required for the electrical transition from fossil fuels to electric energy, we first establish a business-as-usual baseline, assuming continued growth in demand driven by global population growth and rising standard of living. We then project the extra copper needs of the electric transition relative to this baseline. The extra copper that cannot be supplied through recycling must be mined, and we determine the annual increase in mining necessary to support the electrical transition. Our analysis shows that, while there is enough discovered copper with resources close to being defined to meet demand for the next 25 years, the rate at which it needs to be mined poses significant challenges. The unavoidable conflict between the copper demands of electrification and achieving equitable living standards for the developing world underscores the importance of resource-realistic policies. Given that the sharp increase in copper demand is primarily driven by batteries, the extra copper needs for electrification can be significantly reduced if the need for electrical storage is minimized. This can be achieved by generating electricity through a mix of nuclear, wind, and photovoltaics; managing power generation with backup electric plants fueled by methane from abundant resources of natural gas; and transitioning to a predominantly hybrid transportation fleet rather than fully electric vehicles.