Relevant FT article
UK’s mortgage relief measures risk a financial shortfall in later life
This is going to be a timebomb, I'm sure of it. Rates are not going back to sub-2% for a long time, and more people are going to be looking at interest-only.
The banks are perfectly happy with this, provided people have at least some equity in the property, as it means more money long-term for them. But it is going to mean a lot of people passing retirement age with large interest-only payments still coming out.
Rates are not going back to sub-2% for a long time
I disagree quite strongly.
Economies limping along at ~1% GDP growth per year and little or no GDP per capita growth can't handle larger base rates for long. It's a self-correcting cycle - if base rates remain elevated for too long discretionary spending will collapse and many, many businesses/loans/credit with it.
Rishi promised to half inflation not because he's a financial genius with a secret trick, but because he knows two things: 1) what I said above, 2) inflation is often given as a YoY measure, so by December 2023 we're measuring inflation above the 10% inflation of December last year, and the country can't afford 10% inflation per year for long either.
This is good advice 👍 in the medium to long-term, though, it's possible that rates won't be returning to ~2%, so these measures should just be considered as a way for borrowers to buy a little time.
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