doo

By degrading a near-peer adversary’s military capability, gaining unprecedented battlefield intelligence, and accelerating the testing and development of advanced weapons systems, the U.S. is realizing a Return on Strategic Investment (ROSI) of 321% to 797%

2.5 years to halve the reserves, the spend cannot be linear and I also don't think they need to get to zero to have a collapse.

... The economy is being funded by the cash reserves, which increases inflation, which leads to another round of interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which makes it harder to borrow money, which is necessary for economic growth. Eventually, the cash reserves will run out. It took 2.5 years to deplete half the Russian reserves. Russia withdrew $37 billion to cover deficits in December 2022. It withdrew $20 billion to cover deficits in December 2023. It only has $54 billion left.

If anything, russia is showing clear signs of sunk-cost fallacy

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment

In today's #vatniksoup I'll talk about Russian Nazis and introduce Russian neo-Nazi movements and paramilitary groups like Rusich and PMC Wagner. They're best-known for being funded by the Kremlin and being responsible for the "denazification" in Ukraine.

So basically, we're waiting for a (hopefully very soon) systemic collapse of moscovite army since they bet both their attack and defence on artillery