I pretty much agree with all of your points, but wanted to add a few more that have gone into me taking a long Arena break:
- All rares are effectively ~$5, and mythics cost even more
One of the greatest aspects of the game pre-Arena was that there were literally thousands of cheap cards (cheap rares/mythics) to make playing off-meta or fun decks affordable. Some are even quite competitive, yet in Arena the cost for every rare and mythic normalizes around the same price. Roughly $6/rare if you buy gems for packs, or about $2.50/rare if you buy rare wildcards directly. However, there is a cap on the direct buy WCs.
Having ALL rares equalized in a rather high price forces everyone to spend their WCs on only the highest performing rares and mythics. If you only have $20 for Arena, you're not going to spend it all on 4 jank rares for a pet deck, you're going to use them on the top tier rares in the tier 1 decks.
I believe this has unbelievable consequences in game play all the way to player mental health, and after a while I was looking at just how much I was spending to stay current in Arena and I was sickened by it. Not even kidding here -- I never had more than a few hours a week to play, so I was putting in about $200/set! I stopped in January 2024 and haven't returned but at this point I think it's essentially impossible for the economy to change.
- Not interested in the play patterns
This is not Arena-specific, but all of the formats available on Arena right now are inundated with play patterns that I don't find enjoyable. Starting with Timeless, because it's the most powerful format, I don't even watch gameplay on Twitch or Youtube anymore because it's not interesting. That is a huge problem I think, because it doesn't look fun to play. You have horrible play patterns like the boros energy cards, Grief+Reanimate, all of the silly Alchemy cards like Juggernaut Peddler, and when you combine everything the game is literally decided on turn 2. That is not fun at all, in fact that feels like the opposite of fun to me. I like puzzles and board state and cards that do pretty much one thing, where through the combination of one-things you can create a complex game. We don't have that right now.
With Standard, often Standard players say the format is healthy or "healthier than it's ever been" and I contest that with it's flat out not fun to play and not fun to watch. That's my experience. Look at the # of Twitch streamers. Look at CovertGoBlue quitting the game because he found Standard to be too unenjoyable. These are the real effects of what WoTC is doing to the format -- making it faster and more powerful, more pushed rares and mythics, and way less deck design thought. The fact that Sheoldred is still in standard makes me sick.
I have been getting into Pioneer lately because I think it's perhaps the only interesting format left to play, and with that I may get into Explorer but I really wish the card pool was equal to Pioneer. I think that's a huge mistake they're making in slow-rolling the card releases.
- Brawl is unplayable
If anyone can give me one reason why Nadu isn't banned in Brawl I'll concede, but the fact that it hasn't been banned (as well as Rusko and Baral imo) tells us everything we need to know about Brawl: WoTC. doesn't. give. a. shit. They don't care at all, and the lack of not only meaningful but ANY updates at all to queuing or banlist is enough of a reason to hard avoid it all together.
This is a format where players just auto-concede to certain commanders that they don't want to play. Imagine managing a popular game where tons of your playerbase hates aspects of it so much that they just concede to take a loss when they see a set of cards you design to be fun. This is the opposite of fun to me, and again I think it non-trivially contributes to negative player mental health.
I could go on but this has gotten long already. I appreciate the post because some of this stuff I have been thinking about for a long time.
I don't think it's the volume of sets that will suffer, but the quality of the set design in those sets. I feel like if resources are allocated more towards the UB cards we'll see all the cool and interesting mechanics and cards printed in those sets and then Standard becomes the afterthought.