628
WTNT32 KNHC 070243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
...BERYL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE
LANDFALL...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...24.7N 94.0W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to Sargent
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio
Grande River
- The Texas coast north of Sargent to San Luis Pass
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio
Grande River
- The Texas coast north of Sargent to High Island
- The northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el
Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to High
Island, including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston
Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River northward
to North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore
- San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Bay
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
Interests elsewhere in northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 94.0 West. Beryl is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion
should continue through Sunday. A turn toward the north-northwest
is expected Sunday night, with a turn toward the north on Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to make landfall
on the Texas coast Monday morning.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to become a
hurricane again Sunday or Sunday night before it reaches the Texas
coast.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42002 in the western Gulf of Mexico
recently reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a gust
of 54 mph (86 km/h).
The minimum central pressure based on observations from the NOAA
and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area by early Monday. Winds are first expected to reach tropical
storm strength by late Sunday, making outdoor preparations difficult
or dangerous.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning by Sunday
night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning areas in Texas and northeastern Mexico by Sunday night.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mesquite Bay, TX to Freeport, TX...4-6 ft
Matagorda Bay...4-6 ft
Freeport, TX to High Island, TX...3-5 ft
N Entrance Padre Island NS, TX to Mesquite Bay, TX...3-5 ft
Corpus Christi Bay...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to N Entrance Padre Island NS, TX...2-4
ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Cameron, LA...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts
of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through midweek. This rainfall
will produce areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be
locally considerable. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is
also expected.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes could occur along the Texas Coast Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night.
SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern
Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next few
days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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