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submitted 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) by Emperor@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk

It's time to see if the polls are right.

Previously: the voting megathread

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submitted 43 minutes ago by Twig@sopuli.xyz to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
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submitted 1 hour ago by Mex@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
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submitted 57 minutes ago by Twig@sopuli.xyz to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
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I count 306 seats where Labour are 1st and the Conservatives 2nd, or Conservatives 1st and Labour 2nd.

In the other 326 seats, either the Lib Dems, Reform, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru or independents are a top two party. Where most voters live, the traditional Labour vs Conservative debate is no longer the relevant one.

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submitted 11 hours ago by Emperor@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk

Tax officials are under pressure this weekend to publish estimated figures on offshore tax avoidance by some of the country’s wealthiest individuals after withholding the information in a report published during the election campaign.

In June 2022, Lucy Frazer, then financial secretary to the Treasury, pledged that HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) would publish figures on the offshore tax gap, but the release of the figures has been repeatedly delayed. An HMRC report published on 20 June this year – four weeks after the election was called – estimated the tax gap to be £39.8bn for the 2022-23 tax year. The tax gap is the difference between the amount of tax that should be collected and what has actually been paid.

A breakdown of the figures of “non-compliance by UK residents failing to declare their offshore income” was withheld by HMRC. Officials concluded that this “additional breakdown of the tax gap should not be released within the election period” in line with guidance for civil servants.

Election guidance for civil servants says that statistical activities should “avoid competition with parliamentary candidates for the attention of the public”.

The decision to withhold the estimated figures has been challenged by the investigative thinktank TaxWatch. It says that if HMRC concluded it was too controversial to publish the offshore tax gap figures, the publication of the other tax gap figures should also have been delayed.

Claire Aston, director of TaxWatch, said: “The main political parties pledged in their election manifestos to raise more revenue by closing the tax gap, and given that, these figures should not have been held back.”

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submitted 11 hours ago by Emperor@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk

The sewage crisis was a significant factor in the Tories’ losing support in the “blue wall” in the south of England, electoral polling suggests.

Seven out of 10 voters supported legal measures to eliminate sewage spills in ecologically sensitive areas by 2030, according to polling conducted for Greenpeace by Survation just before the election. Less than a third of voters thought the Conservatives were right to weaken their commitments on the climate crisis and the environment.

The Tories lost 37 of the 52 “blue wall” seats in the south of England, with 24 taken by the Liberal Democrats, who campaigned strongly on sewage and the crisis of polluted rivers and beaches. Some of those seats, particularly along the Thames, include spots where some of the worst sewage problems have been reported.

One in four people in the region told pollsters that the Conservative party’s stance on the environment was a key reason for not voting for them; nationally, only a fifth of people cited this as a reason.

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submitted 18 hours ago by flamingos@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk

A projection of how the election results would look if we used Additional Member System (AMS), like in Scotland and Wales.

Party AMS FPTP Seat change
Labour 236 411 +175
LibDems 77 71 -6
Green 42 4 -38
SNP 18 9 -9
Plaid Cymru 4 4 0
Reform 94 5 -89
Conservative 157 121 -36
Northern Ireland 18 18 0
Other 4 6 +2
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submitted 1 day ago by Twig@sopuli.xyz to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
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The former Labour leader clinched a victory with more than 24,000 votes, compared to Labour candidate Praful Nargund who won more than 16,000.

It will come as a huge relief to Mr Corbyn, who has represented the north London constituency for 40 years.

Speaking at the count, he said: "I want to place on record my enormous thanks to the people of Islington North for electing me for the 11th time."

He added: "We have shown what kinder, gentler and more sensible, more inclusive politics can bring about.

"I couldn't be more proud of my constituency than I am tonight and proud of our team that brought this result. Thank you very much Islington North for the result we have achieved tonight."

Islington North was on a knife edge, with the earlier general election exit poll saying that it was too close to call.

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It was the hat what did it! 😂😂😂

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Let Larry in! (feddit.uk)
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submitted 2 days ago by sirico@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
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I'm sure you all know this already but it's now official.

The fourth person ever to lead Labour to a majority. The first person since 1970 to win a majority and overturn a majority at the same time.

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Despite the Labour party winning an unprecedented majority of 174 - the largest any party in the UK has achieved since 1832 the party's share of the vote only increased by 1.7% to 33.8%; hardly a winning endorsement. Turnout was approximately 60% which is the lowest since 2001. The LibDems who have regularly campaigned for PR may now be changing their tune. Due to the nature of how the party's support is clustered in particular geographical areas the LibDems they have disproportionately from FPTP. The LibDems polled 3,499,933 or 12.2% of vote and received 71. Reform UK in contrast has it support thinnly spread across the UK. The party polled 4,091,549 or 14.3% but on won four seats.

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submitted 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) by AngusTheNerd@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk

Labour has officially won the 2024 general election after reaching the required 326 seats.

Speaking in central London, the next prime minister Keir Starmer says "change begins now".

"It feels good, I have to be honest," he tells a cheering crowd.

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I don’t know if it’s just the extent to which Conservative activists were gaslit by the polling and CCHQ’s abject campaign, but the mood among those I spoke to as the night progressed was oddly chipper, given the Tory party was set to receive the worst result in its long history.

But when it looked at one point as though it might return fewer than 70 seats, and there seemed to be the faint possibility of Sir Ed Davey as leader of the opposition, the 1997 result minus 20 or so seats suddenly didn’t look so bad.

In the short run, that psychology is welcome: it makes the odds of a complete meltdown, and a shotgun marriage with Reform UK, much less likely. The important thing is that it doesn’t run over into complacency – this is still a horrific result, and the Conservatives’ internal reckoning must face up to the scale of the disaster.

The question now is who is going to oversee that reckoning? For as Labour ministers get their feet under their desks and begin the act of being performatively shocked by the real state of the books, the Conservatives are about to plunge into a leadership contest.

Voters have already winnowed the field: Grant Shapps, always an outside bet, is out in Welwyn Hatfield. More significantly, Penny Mordaunt lost a close-fought race in Portsmouth North. That means the Tory left, never the most potent force in these contests, has lost its most plausible champion.

Yet the hard right hasn’t had a good campaign either. Suella Braverman won in Fareham and Waterlooville, and will certainly be a contender in the contest to come. But while Reform UK won a lot of votes, its failure to deliver on the promise of the exit poll will undermine any push for an immediate deal.

At one point, whether or not to reach an accommodation with Farage looked set to be the defining split of the race. But after six weeks of thoroughly toxifying their brand, the other candidates are all playing down the idea of a deal with Reform UK.

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From the BBC:

Party No. Seats Δ Seats Vote % Δ Vote %
Labour 412* +211 33.7% +1.6%
Conservatives 121 -250 23.7% -19.9%
Liberal Democrat 71 +63 12.2% +0.6%
SNP 9 -38 2.5% -1.3%
Sinn Fein 7 0 0.7% +0.1%
Independent 6 +6 2.0% +1.4%
DUP 5 -3 0.6% -0.2%
Reform 4 +4 14.3% +12.3%
Green 4 +3 6.8% +4.1%
Plaid Cymru 4 +2 0.7% +0.2%
SDLP 2 0 0.3% -0.1%
Alliance 1 0 0.4% 0%
UUP 1 +1 0.3% 0%
TUV 1 +1 0.2% +0.2%
Workers Party 0 0 0.7% +0.7%

* Includes Speaker

Turnout: 60% (-7.6% from 2019)

Currently waiting on South Basildon and East Thurrock (Should be out later) and Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire (delayed to Saturday). Will update when they're out.

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submitted 2 days ago by sirico@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk

A number of high-profile Conservative and Labour MPs have lost their seats as Rishi Sunak conceded that his party had been defeated in the general election and Sir Keir Starmer declared a historic victory.

Conservatives Liz Truss Seat: South West Norfolk Lost to: Labour

Truss served as UK prime minister for 49 days in 2022 and was previously foreign secretary and trade secretary. She was forced out of office after her government’s “mini” Budget spooked financial markets and triggered a crisis in the pensions sector. First elected to parliament in 2010, Truss becomes the first former premier for almost 90 years to lose their seat in a general election.

Penny Mordaunt Seat: Portsmouth North Lost to: Labour

A former Royal Navy reservist, the House of Commons leader ran in the 2022 Tory leadership contest as a moderate and had been tipped as a future contender to lead the party if she held on to her seat. Her sword-bearing role at King Charles’s coronation raised her national profile, but she lost to Labour by about 780 votes.

Penny Mordaunt © Ben Stevens/Shutterstock Alex Chalk Seat: Cheltenham Lost to: Liberal Democrats

A respected legal advocate, the ousted justice secretary is expected to return to practice at chambers 6KBW College Hill. Chalk had the tough task of managing a government department with an unprotected budget as it reeled from severe cuts. But he helped push through legislation to exonerate sub-postmasters caught up in the Horizon scandal.

Gillian Keegan Seat: Chichester Lost to: Liberal Democrats

The education secretary lost out in a three-way battle for the seat she first won in 2017. Keegan faced the unenviable job of closing more than 100 schools during her tenure over the use of unsafe concrete in their construction and was captured on a microphone complaining she received no praise for doing a “fucking good job”.

Grant Shapps Seat: Welwyn Hatfield Lost to: Labour

A veteran cabinet minister, Shapps was frequently turned to as a “safe pair of hands” by Sunak. A strong media performer and “attack dog” for the Conservative government, he rose to prominence in 2012 after it emerged he operated a business while an MP under the pseudonym Michael Green.

Grant Shapps at his Welwyn Hatfield count © James Shaw/Shutterstock Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg Seat: North East Somerset and Hanham Lost to: Labour

A prominent Brexiter, Rees-Mogg entered parliament in 2010. He served in the governments of Truss and Boris Johnson, holding positions including business secretary and Brexit opportunities minister. The social conservative repeatedly urged his party to enter a pact with Reform UK in this year’s general election.

Sir Liam Fox Seat: North Somerset Lost to: Labour

Having served in cabinet, Fox fell from grace under prime minister Boris Johnson and sat on the backbenches for the duration of the last parliament. He was embroiled in the expenses scandal in 2009 and stood down from his role as defence secretary after he allowed a close friend and lobbyist into confidential meetings.

Mark Harper Seat: Forest of Dean Lost to: Labour

A reliable figure for Sunak during his time in government, the former transport secretary was one of the few MPs not to be caught up in the expenses scandal. He resigned as immigration minister in 2014 after he discovered his cleaner was in the UK without proper documentation. This paved the way for his return to government less than six months later.

Michelle Donelan Seat: Melksham and Devizes Lost to: Liberal Democrats

Donelan decided to become a politician aged six. The former science minister was a strong proponent of a “culture war” strategy in government. Having served for nearly a decade, she gained attention when taxpayers footed her £15,000 legal bill after she falsely accused an academic of supporting or sympathising with Hamas.

Labour Jonathan Ashworth Seat: Leicester South Lost to: Independent

Ashworth was shadow paymaster-general on Starmer’s opposition front bench. First elected to parliament in 2011, he served as shadow health secretary during the pandemic and was regarded as a strong media performer. But he was pushed into second place in his constituency by an independent candidate running on a pro-Palestinian ticket.

Thangam Debbonaire Seat: Bristol Central Lost to: Greens

The shadow culture secretary had represented the now-reshaped seat of Bristol West since 2015 after ousting the Liberal Democrats. But on Thursday she lost to Carla Denyer, co-leader of the Green party. Previously shadow housing secretary and shadow Commons leader, Debbonaire is a former professional cellist and had been backed by figures in the arts world.

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How'd that happen then? (sh.itjust.works)
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submitted 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) by GreatAlbatross@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
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submitted 21 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago) by nimomycelium@lemmy.world to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
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Final Exit Poll (lemmy.world)
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