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this post was submitted on 15 Apr 2024
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I think there are two differences between Taiwan and Ukraine: Putin is fucking insane and might actually use nukes if attacked directly by a NATO nation, but I don't think Xi would do that (I could be wrong on both assessments). And Ukraine doesn't really have anything the world wants, while Taiwan (like you correctly pointed out) is about the only place that makes high performance computer chips and nobody wants China to have a world-wide stranglehold on that product.
I think, before any chip maker in Taiwan is taken by chinese forces, their factories and laboritories might explode for some reason or another. I don't think that China can take them without catastrophic loss of very expensive and sensitive equipment that requires very specialised workers they don't have. All of these things can't be replaced in a reasonable time frame, especially at war.
If China follows through with an invasion, they might be after something else.
That something else is: Taiwan is an important geographic location. A separate Taiwan prevents China from having full easy access to the Pacific Ocean. If China holds Taiwan, China will be able to project its naval powers much further into the Pacific and the US does not like it.
This has always been the case since the KMT fled to Taiwan, way before Taiwan became a high-tech chip producing country. Way before Taiwan democratized. (Remember, Chiang Kai-Shek himself was a authoritarian asshole that has killed many earlier migrants to Taiwan.)
It's nice to have TSMC producing high-tech chips, but Samsung and Intel can also do so, perhaps only a process node (or half) behind TSMC, but Intel CPUs are no slouch compared to AMD's despite being a node behind. And Samsung have been producing some of nVidia's GPUs so they're not out of the game. But TSMC does need to be recognized and I don't really think it can be reproduced in the US. Taiwan has a very highly educated and underpaid engineering work force. I really don't think you can reproduce the same results in the US at the same costs. Its going to cost 5-10X more to move to the US.
Ukraine is a huge exporter of grain. Breadbasket to much of the world. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/ukraine-s-food-exports-by-the-numbers/.
but not to european and US, and that's what matter
I think Putin is out of touch and lives with a completely different world view than you or I, but I don't think he is insane or suicidal. Look at how far away he stayed from people during COVID.
I think we do ourselves a disservice by bowing down to his sabre rattling every time he reminds us he has nukes. We know, and he also knows the second one will drop on his head if he tries it. It's just posturing to get people likrnus arguing and making his land grab seem more legitimate, like there's nothing we can really do.
He will always have nukes, and if we alwuas back down because not them he will always get his way.
Ukraine has 24% of the world's supply of noble gasses used in computer chip manufacturing, along with 35% of the remaining helium on the planet.
I think the Russians want this very much and that is why Russia is even in Ukraine.