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this post was submitted on 24 Apr 2024
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Unpopular Opinion
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You're basically asking "do you check for red flags on everybody who is not raising red flags?"
In comment threads, I usually only check post history for people I am considering blocking. It makes sense to check post history if people are instigating. If that person is just starting shit everywhere then there's no reason to listen to them, but if they have a history of reasoned discussion then maybe what they say is worth considering. (I realize how ironic this is coming from somebody who has almost no comment history on a new account)
That's fine if you're just trying to avoid whatever you consider 'red flags'.
But your post is drawing a correlation with other post activity and if you want to do that accurately you need a broader sample set.
Yes, this is the "base rate" fallacy. You may find the "red flags" your looking for, but they may actually be more common among other commenters that you don't examine.
Simply, what is the "base rate" of those red flags on average? You have to examine a random sample of commenters to know that.