I'm sure that you're right that Red Bull will have the best car for the next few years. Even without significant development they're far enough ahead aerodynamically that I bet their development could stagnate a little for a year or two before other teams caught up.

Having said that Newey does seem to have an innate understanding of aerodynamics than even other good engineers black. This doesn't make it impossible for other people to build good cars but it does mean he can do it faster with less iterations.

It's always been my understanding that most of Mercedes dominance was due mostly to engine development. Especially when Red Bull was using Renault engines. Mercedes could just brute force their way to the front even if they were doing it with less efficient aerodynamics. Oh and of course just throwing money at the problem seeing that was pre-cost cap. With the cost cap and limitations on CFD and wind tunnel time. The number of iterations matters a lot more now.