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this post was submitted on 18 May 2024
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A Boring Dystopia
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RFK jr is going to siphon away possible Trump voters, not possible Biden voters. I have no problem with this.
He won't have the (R) next to his name. I hope you're right, but the Never Trumpers talk a big game every time... then bend the knee.
We hope... There's a lot riding on that hope.
Yeah, talking to some folks on a recent visit to the states. It sounds like there are at least some young voters who would normally vote D but won’t because of Biden’s age that are leaning towards RFK. I don’t think his influence can be easily dismissed
I dunno. His own staffer came out and said their entire purpose was to keep Biden from winning re-election. Third party candidates don’t typically siphon votes away from the party that religiously tows the line. The republicans have gotten their voters in lockstep formation, to a scary degree. The democrats have a harder time because their needed voters are a wide swath of different people, from those scared of republicans (really the dems bread and butter), to people who want social programs, to liberals, to liberal-leaning conservatives (though this group has been disappearing for a while), to leftists that begrudgingly vote for the lesser of two evils…it’s a melting pot. That’s also why the dems have a harder time winning, typically. The dems and the left will debate procedural shit for how to accomplish similar goals. The right is all emotional appeals/reactionaries. Herding cats vs shooting fish in a barrel. I wouldn’t be so sure about RFK jr only appealing to the right.
You're not thinking correctly. The right is not a giant monolith. Many people who lean right or are centrists voted for Biden last election because they too despise Trump. Those are the kind of people who will vote for RFK. Now, they still get to vote against Trump, but don't have to vote for Biden. And yes, of course voting 3rd party is essentially the same as voting for whoever wins up winning, but people are idiots and don't understand that logic.
Yeah, I think that’s generally the idea. But i think the same would’ve been true of Gary whatshisface in 2016, the libertarian guy. I’m not really sure that’s how it shook out in the end, though.
I also think the more-likely-to-be-democrat voters are probably just generally more likely to vote third party, knowing it’s a throwaway, in order to send a message. The right really doesn’t ever seem to break apart, that ~48-50% of people seemingly can’t be turned away no matter what happens. Look at all those street interviews done recently. Those “anyone but trump” republicans, when pressed on who they’d vote for if Nikki Haley couldn’t win the primary, they all waffled for a minute before saying they’d vote for trump. After calling him a fascist, a racist, etc. The conditioning on the right is so strong. It needs to be studied. I’m sure it will be if humanity survives the next 20 years.
Trump doesn't really tow the line, through. He's a manifestation of a revolt from inside the GOP's white nationalist electoral core, against the financial internationalist who have controlled the party since Reagan.
I don't think it's clear who RFK is really feeding from. It's possible his voters simply wouldn't turn out if he wasn't on the ballot. But it's doubtful that he can steal Biden voters by parroting Trump positions.
Liberal admins don't debate procedural shit, they kill legislation hostile to their donors with technicalities. These same technicalities never affect our illegal wars or unconstitutional policing or criminally unconscionable polluting or corrupt corporate bailouts.
The big difference between libs and cons is that cons demand their red meat and are willing to lose an election or two to guarantee it, while liberals are constantly running scared of their replacements in the next election.
The emotion you see isn't unique to conservatives. It's simply rewarded rather than shamed.
No, but their voters would sacrifice themselves to tow the line. That was my point.
I dunno. There are plenty of relatively shallow thinking democrats. It’s called a “protest vote” for a reason.
I didn’t mean “procedural shit” like inside baseball house floor procedural. I meant the voters are multifaceted and disagree on how to achieve what liberals and leftists can generally agree upon: social programs and the like. See what I’m saying? I’m really tired and I’m not explaining this well, but I’m saying even if leftists and liberals and democrats can all be somewhat on the same page about a general outcome they’d like to see, there are segments of that voting populace that would withhold their vote if the the issue is discussed in a way they can’t get behind or the route to the agreed-upon solution isn’t exactly to their liking.
There was a tweet someone posted just the other day on the leftist meme community, basically saying “fascists are leftists’ #2 greatest enemy, behind the other leftist who agrees with them roughly 96%.” You’ll also get a lot more single issue voters, or leftists that will be turned away because they can’t sacrifice their morals on one issue the candidate doesn’t agree with them on, while undeniably accomplishing many things the leftist does support. We have principles, basically. And sacrificing those principles is a lot harder for us than a right wing voter that see Red and mashes that button as fast as they can.
The democrats’ likely voters are finicky and incredibly diverse. On the right, the voters tow the line pretty much universally. No matter what happens, the republicans can’t seem to lose votes past a certain point. The democrats have to get a lot of stuff right for a pretty diverse group of voters, all in a row, to keep their voters turning out.
If I’m understanding this correctly, I think I strongly disagree. But can you clarify this? Because I’m not sure I do actually understand what you mean.