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this post was submitted on 10 Jun 2024
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Yeah sorry guys, did you forget you work for an asshole?
Apple could have tried to work with them and said something like "We'll pay when the embargo ends", since now Kapersky has every reason to sell their next apple exploit on the black market.
They've just turned a department of people successfully working to make apple more secure into a department of people working to make it less secure.
Apple could have tried to work with them and said something like "We'll pay when the embargo ends"
.....aaaaand that would most likely be trying to circumvent the sanctions by essentially receiving credit from Kaspersky on delivered services.
Not saying the situation is optional, but the sanctions would be extremely toothless if it was that easy to circumvent.
How is holding the money until (and if) the sanctions are lifted, "circumventing"?
However unlikely it would be, if the sanctions are lifted (maybe Russia gets a new, sane Government, calls off its invasion, stops its international shenanigans), wouldn't it be OK to pay this company then?
It would still probably count as some sort of trade (even when delayed), which is what would violate the sanctions.
It could be argued that such delayed trade should be encouraged. Let Apple's debt to Kaspersky build up, with interest, but it'll only be paid once sanctions end which will only happen once pre-determined conditions are met. It's basically an increasing incentive to change course in a way that will result in sanctions being lifted.
There are probably some pretty severe downsides to this approach though.
If the point of the embargo is to pressure affected parties to enact change on the governments policies, offering the reward after sanctions are lifted would be an added incentive.
It should be allowed or even encouraged to help the power of the sanctions.
In many cases it's doing business and not just the payment!/compansation that the sanctions is about.
They are extremely toothless in the sense of making continuation of the war less interesting.
Russian oil\gas\etc revenues have grown.
What the sanctions have hurt are mostly many smaller businesses and individuals. Well, big companies too, but that just makes them more dependent on state support. Which is a win for the Russian government.
Kaspersky is definitely an FSB-friendly company.
But still, most people hurt by sanctions are innocent. Well, less guilty than European politicians profiting from cooperation with Russia both before and after 2022, and remember how all those "free democratic" countries claimed Russian elections were legit when having Putin in Russia seemed to have no downsides, despite mass protests.
Is that why Gazprom posted its first annual loss in 20 years? a loss of $6.9 billion. Because revenues have grown so much?
Huge growth!
Since many of the sanctions also apply to things that are expected to fail over time, like electronics and industrial equipment, I'm sure the losses will continue to rise. Something to look forward to.
Exactly. These sanctions take some time to be felt. Russia is also very selective in what economic numbers it publishes. They are also artificially keeping up the exchange rate of the ruble.
These are all things that you can only keep doing for so long and it makes the crash afterwards even worse. Basically: they can pretend everything is all-right in the short term, but they have to screw themselves over in the long term to do so.
Is that a falsifiable prediction?
When is it gonna hit? If it goes beyond that period, are you gonna revise your model or insist you were only off by a year, and surely it will collapse next year?
I have zero faith in Russia, but every time someone's told me is about to collapse or overthrow the government because of sanctions, and all evidence to the contrary is fabricated, they've been wrong. There's journalists and economists who've spent 30+ years saying that about China, Cuba, and Iran, who still somehow have jobs.
They will continue to rise in the areas less important for war effort. Which means that the balance of power in Russia will keep getting worse.
Must also be why Russia's proposed pipeline to china (to offset the sales they are no longer making to Europe) has ground to a halt because China have them over a barrel when it comes to price.
That would be good news, but I've been kinda saturated with such since 2022.
....What?
That's impolite. I'm almost certain you yourself don't speak any language other than English, like some boor.
If you really want to know "what", then I meant that when every day every weak for a few months you hear how Russian economy is going to crumble after a few months of Ukrainian resistance, even from some professors, and it just doesn't, and it still hasn't, - you stop believing that.
They are extremely toothless in the sense of making continuation of the war less interesting.
If it was "toothless", Putin and his propaganda machinery wouldn't bother commenting on it so often.
I don't watch TV, but I've gotten the impression that for the last 2 years or so they've been talking less and less about sanctions. Which would make your idea of how this works consistent in a wrong fucking way.
You have an impression about what they don't talk about on TV based on that you don't watch TV?
Based on the fact that they've accomplished almost nothing tells me they are toothless, personally.
Ratchet them way the fuck up.
Just curious... What are your expectations for sanctions that have been in effect for a year or so?
Eh, I've accomplished a few of the things which were my plan for all of my life, so now I don't know what to do anymore with those branches, so to say.
More important, why are you so butthurt? Relax, it's just a shitfest in the interwebs. We all get back to tea and work and our pets and hobbies and relatives and friends from it.
Why in the world would you think I was talking about what YOU accomplished...? Or that I'm butthurt about anything except how toothless and ineffective the Russian sanctions have been on their main goal - which was to stop the constant murder of Ukrainians?
"Toothless" was referencing Russian sanctions, that part of the conversation didn't suddenly shift to focus on you.
My bad. I think I saw the word "he" there. Agree on the sanctions, but I think their main goal was to insulate Russia and not prevent murder. Since the latter would be less about payments in Steam becoming pita and more about Russian gas and oil not getting to Europe in any form, laundered through Azerbaijan or something else too.
Google the word "sample".
Also we live in the society, don't you know? When some old lady repeats stuff about Zelensky being a drug addict or a dumb joke about democracy in Ukraine, you know it's not her own thoughts.
Point being - last time I heard anybody talk about sanctions like that, out of nowhere with bullshit mixed in, was more than a year ago.
[many citations needed]
Also, you seem to be putting the actions of Putin (and the consequences of allowing him to get the country to this state) on to Europe and NATO. The fact is that these sanctions would not be in place if Putin didn't invade a neighboring country for illegal annexation (specifically, Russia violated United Nations Charter Article 2, paragraph 4).
I'm sorry to tell you that mass protests aren't enough. As long as the Russian people are complicit (for example, by continuing to contribute to war efforts at their oil refinery jobs) and continue to allow Putin to govern, they will suffer.
I'm definitely putting it on Europe and NATO to act like some protector of democracy and then confirm Putin's "elections" while there were widespread protests ongoing, and now when that criminal unelected regime they criminally supported invades another country, to blame people who've done their part to prevent it.
No, victims are not complicit in crimes even if being exploited to help those. You should be sorry for being a cheat.
Also I still expect your justification or apology for western governments which confirmed Putin's "elections". Until then any word of a westerner on this matter is worth less than a bowl of piss.
Only the Russian people can fix the elections. NATO and the EU have nothing to do with that, so I'm not sure why you're blaming them for "confirming" it when the only people that "confirmed" it were the Russian people who rolled over for yet another false election.
So you are owed no apology from NATO, and I certainly don't owe you one.