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this post was submitted on 20 Jul 2023
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politics
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After 2016, anyone who believes in polls is a fool.
Believing is one thing. Anyone who changes their behavior because of polls, I wanna meet this fucking idiot and find out what's going on in that dumb brain
The 2016 polls were not inaccurate though. They said Trump had a small chance at victory, and he pulled it off. They never said it was impossible, they just said smart money was on Hillary.
Ya, if I remember right FiveThirtyEight had Trump at around 30% chance in 2016, so slightly unlikely but not exactly a crazy longshot.
They were one of the few that gave him that large of a margin, iirc. The rest were in the 90's for Hillary.
The national polling was also pretty accurate, it was the state polling that missed. Trump squeezed out wins in 4 states by a combined total of 50,000 votes. Nationally though the numbers were within their prediction.