15
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
this post was submitted on 09 Jul 2024
15 points (54.7% liked)
politics
18586 readers
4298 users here now
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
It’s too much uncertainty. Personally I’d rather go with the incumbency bump and a steady ship. And let’s not forget that Biden has beaten loser Trump already. And polls have been getting worse not better at predicting elections the last several years
Again I'm sorry but as a data and politics junkie I must dispel some things here.
There is every reason to believe that sticking with Biden is akin to going down with a sinking ship. We have to recognize that there is very little uncertainty about this. Once we recognize this, then it's easier to consider jumping ship because ultimately any alternative is better than the chance you have on a sinking ship.
Polls have been quite accurate, actually. 538's predictions, at least when Silver was there, were well over 90% accurate these past cycles. (remember, they model not just the Presidential race but every House, Senate, and Governor's race. So we have to use polls as markers for where the race is. (otherwise what are we going off of, vibes?)
Yes Biden has beaten Loser Trump once, but Biden was a full 10 points ahead at this point than where he is now and not well behind Trump. Moreover Biden wasn't dealing with 3.5 years of right-wing media propaganda that has seen his aggregate approval ratings consistently decline since the course of his presidency to 37%. Ask Jimmy Carter how that feels.
Biden isn't just under-performing his 2020 run; he's under-performing Hillary's 2016 loss.
So the key question is how can we buck the steady decline in Biden's poll numbers? How can we stop the bleeding? Well, Biden's strategy was to do just that with this debate. That catastrophically backfired. He was already in a bad spot pre-debate. Post-debate he's 2 steps behind with no event from here until November that will be seen by that many people and sway undecided voters' concerns over his age. I'd say let's wait for Trump to screw up, but if a conviction doesn't drop his poll numbers significantly, then what will? Probably nothing.