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this post was submitted on 09 Jul 2024
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There is no strong fallback. If Michelle said she would run; if Klobuchar said she would run; if Cory Booker came out as running; if there were any strong Democratic candidate with name recognition who stood a chance at beating Trump, we'd have a choice.
But none of those people have, and there isn't. We fall in line behind Biden, or he backs out and it's chaos until the primary, and there winner has a couple of months to storm the entire US and become a household name.
Like my grandmother-in-law would always say to my MIL: "We're on the freeway now, Bridge."
I'm sorry but that's just not true. Let me explain.
This election comes down to 6 battleground swing states. Without Michigan, Biden likely loses. Without Pennsylvania, Biden definitely loses.
Both Josh Shapiro of Pennyslvania and Whitmer of Michigan outperformed Biden in these states. That's point one.
Point two is that national name recognition is irrelevant when you consider the fact that if headlines tomorrow read, "BREAKING NEWS: Biden to step down; endorses Whitmer" you would have an immediate and profound shock to the entire country you haven't seen in 2 decades. Everyone would be googling Gretchen and you wouldn't be able to escape her name from the free viral media frenzy that would occur for months. She'd be a household name literally overnight.
It’s too much uncertainty. Personally I’d rather go with the incumbency bump and a steady ship. And let’s not forget that Biden has beaten loser Trump already. And polls have been getting worse not better at predicting elections the last several years
Again I'm sorry but as a data and politics junkie I must dispel some things here.
There is every reason to believe that sticking with Biden is akin to going down with a sinking ship. We have to recognize that there is very little uncertainty about this. Once we recognize this, then it's easier to consider jumping ship because ultimately any alternative is better than the chance you have on a sinking ship.
Polls have been quite accurate, actually. 538's predictions, at least when Silver was there, were well over 90% accurate these past cycles. (remember, they model not just the Presidential race but every House, Senate, and Governor's race. So we have to use polls as markers for where the race is. (otherwise what are we going off of, vibes?)
Yes Biden has beaten Loser Trump once, but Biden was a full 10 points ahead at this point than where he is now and not well behind Trump. Moreover Biden wasn't dealing with 3.5 years of right-wing media propaganda that has seen his aggregate approval ratings consistently decline since the course of his presidency to 37%. Ask Jimmy Carter how that feels.
Biden isn't just under-performing his 2020 run; he's under-performing Hillary's 2016 loss.
So the key question is how can we buck the steady decline in Biden's poll numbers? How can we stop the bleeding? Well, Biden's strategy was to do just that with this debate. That catastrophically backfired. He was already in a bad spot pre-debate. Post-debate he's 2 steps behind with no event from here until November that will be seen by that many people and sway undecided voters' concerns over his age. I'd say let's wait for Trump to screw up, but if a conviction doesn't drop his poll numbers significantly, then what will? Probably nothing.