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this post was submitted on 10 Jul 2024
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politics
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Biden's chances of winning are something like 95%. The most accurate and seasoned model for predicting the election has him winning (it's a boolean) and it was only wrong once, which was when Bush got a controversial ruling in his favor by the Supreme Court, which knocks its accuracy down to ~95% instead of 100%.
Also consider: Trump already lost to Biden, Trump's popularity has contracted since then, 538 puts Biden 2% above where he was before the debate, all of the polls that put Biden and Trump neck-and-neck also show 18-25 YOs overwhelmingly voting for Trump, Dems win with higher voter turnout, the recent controversy with the Supreme Court is looking to drive people to the polls in record numbers, and people are currently looking up "Project 2025" more than Taylor Swift and the NFL combined (it's probably going to be searched more than Taylor Swift at her peak, if you look at the growth curve).
So why, exactly, are you making this claim? 🤨
Edit: y'all're doomers who hate facts.
Edit2: The 13 Keys to the White House. That's the subject of the 1st paragraph.
Edit3: I'm not responding to anyone who isn't putting forth an argument or demanding evidence while giving none. I'm sick of talking with dishonest creeps for the week.
Fuck polls. Only voting matters. Don't get complacent.
Correct.
The 13 keys have no credibility ; they are like calling a ball or a strike after the replay with the video box
Reasoning: I want you to be wrong, so I've decided it to be so.
I wish I was wrong in 2016 too when every chump said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning but it was clear as day she wasn't going to be President. Barreling towards the same terrible outcome. Any other view is simply put of touch with the reality on the ground. Sure he's going to win the popular vote again but that don't matter in America.
I love how this reply entirely fails to address the point.
Also? Biden already won against Trump, and that was before Jan6.
You're right your response addresses 2024. Never said he couldn't/wouldn't be president in 2020.
Because I have eyes, ears, and more than like 3 functioning neurons.
Nice source, btw.
You're criticizing me for not having a source when you didn't even put forth an argument. You just said a thing you assumed was true without anything backing it up. Also, almost everything I stated was a well-known fact.
It’s on you to produce this mysterious model, not on me to believe in bullshit over empirical observation. Kindly fuck off.
Tf is empirical observation? Are you just attaching words to your feelings in the hopes they'll sound more valid?
The Keys to the White House. There are 13 criteria called "keys" if the incumbent "has 8 keys" (at least 8 criteria are true) Biden has at least 5 keys, and he appears to have 3 others. The system has correctly predicted 9/10 elections elections and the 1 that it failed at had shenanigans (look up Bush v. Gore).
So what have your eyes and ears told you that's so convincing? Have you spoken with many formerly undecided voters? How about former Trump supporters?
Right? This thread has more bots than Mars