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Hezbollah rocket kills 10 children, injures at least 24 in Majdal Shams
(www.ynetnews.com)
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this post was submitted on 27 Jul 2024
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I think you are overestimating the precision of unguided rockets. Lets eyeball this:
Lets assume the rocket flies ten kilometers, which is on the short end of things. As it is subsonic, it at best could reach a speed of 300m/s (hypersonic is above 343 m/s). Since we are looking at an arc for the shape, lets assume a launch angle of 30°, making it a fairly flat arc. So the speed in ground direction then only is 86% which is cos 30° or in total 260m/s. So that rocket has to fly at least 38 seconds.
Taking just a sideways wind, assuming a gentle breeze on the beaufort scale, at about 4.5 m/s, that would result in a deviation of 171m over the 38 seconds. But now you get wind from the back or the front, which gives the rocket upwards or downwards drift. Or the wind isn't perfectly sideways, so it actually changes the direction the propulsion is pushing too. Over such a range you also get changing wind speeds and directions...
You face the same thing with artillery. Which is why it is usually used in batteries and to cover an area, rather than hit a specific target. Although Artillery is easier in the sense, that the propulsion happens right in the beginning and is aimed correctly.
If we are talking guided missiles, it is a very different story, although i would be suprised if Hezbollah had access to GPS guiding or similiar high precision tools.