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this post was submitted on 30 Sep 2024
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I'm not clear on what data you would want more of. In terms of having a group to compare against, we're sort of losing that ability because nowadays, around 90% of young women in Scotland are vaccinated in school. I might be missing what point you're making; stats has a tendency to cook my brain when I'm not doing it on pen and paper
I want more early vaccine data, actually, so that’s good.
There is a significant decrease in cancer rates among vaccinated compared to unvaccinated, but the early/late divide is less clear. If my statistics is up to snuff (no guarantee there), you can expect an error of ~sqrt(n) in discrete data where n is your count. With the late vaccines, this means an error in the cancer rate of about 2 because they saw ~4 cases (3.2 * 124,000/100,000 ≈ 4). If this is actually overestimating, we could see the rate as 2/124000 or 0.64/40000. In this case, you wouldn’t necessarily expect to see any cases in a sample of 40000.
So it’s not clear from this that early is better than late, though it certainly doesn’t suggest that it’s worse.