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'Dead heat': Trump pulls even with Harris in NBC News poll
(www.nbcnews.com)
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this post was submitted on 13 Oct 2024
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TL:DR The lower number of undecideds also means that less of them need to break for Trump to give a win, even with the gap between Popular Vote and Electoral College predicted to shrink significantly. Polls have been very accurate at predicting the baseline support, it's the undecideds they suck at guessing.
Trump's baseline just hit 46.1%, 2016 final levels(not 2016 baseline that was barely 40%, big difference) and at the rate it's slowly creeping up could be at or close to 2020 final levels, 46.8%. Harris has been stuck at 48 and a half points for a bit. Assuming this trend holds another 4 weeks we're looking at something like 48.8 to 46.8 baseline nationally or in that general area. Some of those undecideds are going for third parties, likely more left leaning ones.
All that accounting for if Trump wins just half the undecideds the final result gap would be around 2 points, similar to 2016 if not slightly smaller, which is probably a Trump win. He's converted enough to diehards he's gone from needing 2/3+ to just half. And Trump won with the undecideds both prior elections. Harris is improving, absolutely, but the changing third party situation is a braking factor absorbing and neutralizing it to a degree(in 2020 and especially 2016 Trump was bleeding more votes to guys like Gary Johnson, Jo Jorgenson, Rocky De Le Fuente, and Evan McMullin. This year the third party composition has shifted left thanks to the rise of the PSL, strengthing of the Greens, RFK Jr killing the small right wing bloc, and Libertarian infighting.). So this change was a net negative and Harris's growth has been somewhat absorbed in neutralizing this. That's also probably why Trump's raw base total is up, among other things a lot of hardliner Hoppean or Rothbardian LIbertarians jumped ship to him when Chase Oliver and the moderates won the party.
Take a swing state for example. Less accurate overall, but just a hypothetical, and it's a clean "get the most votes and it's yours" so no need to guess ratios. According to 538, There's 4 and a half points not locked in, Harris is leading by 0.4-0.7 and it's fluctuating day to day. Pennsylvania isn't a super 3rd party happy state compared to some of the sunbelt, and PSL and Cornel didn't get on, so that's a bit more favorable. Let's say 1 point goes to third party, a bit more Harris thanks to the internal shifts, but not by much. Of of the remaining 3.5, if 63% were to go to Trump, that's it, even with the best case 0.8 point base lead Harris loses. If it's more like 0.4 Trump just needs around 55% of the undecideds. That's it. And this state is better in the third party spread than some others. Trump won more than those numbers from them the last two elections.
The only thing I can see really shifting it, is people saying they'll support trump to stay in with their communities, then making excuses why they stayed home on election day.
And if I'm honest, that's a hell of a hail mary pass.
Breaking the Libertarian Party as badly as it's been broken(they're polling like a quarter of what they did last time) is crucial in a way I don't think people understand. That's probably where a lot of the young men gains are coming from. They're polling worse now then they got as final results last time. I don't think it can be understated how bad that is, third parties are lucky to get half of what they see in polling. They'll be heading to losing 75% support and most of the remaining 25% are going to be Leftist Libertarians who would probably break Democrat if they had to. The Hardliner Hoppeans and Rothbards are obviously going for Trump and a lot of the Moderates went to RFK Jr who in turn endorsed Trump.
That and the COVID deaths thing was always a bit overstated. Yes, more Republicans died. But like a third more. It's like 44-56. Democrats tend to live in cities which aren't exactly the safest places to be in a pandemic, had Trump not been a moron and just sold MAGA masks or something the democrats would have almost certainly been hit worse. That and some of those Republicans would have died anyway as they tend to be older. The actual net loss compared to usual 4 years is like a point or two, nothing monstrous. They've slipped with older white guys who Biden was running up the margins with, young guys are slipping, Hispanics are holding firm, it's basically a race between that and the black and female gains.