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Alarm as Pentagon Confirms Deployment of US Troops to Israel
(www.commondreams.org)
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this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2024
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There isn't currently a scientific consensus, as wikipedia should be pointing out, with studies differing massively depending mostly on what model of soil uptake and preservation in atmosphere is used.
We know that the majority of in air debris would not come from the explosion, which is designed to minimize fallout in all modern weapons and deployment models, but from the resulting fires. We also know from previous tests the resulting fires don't actually last long as they tend to burn through areas quickly.
In short it's not a sure thing, and if any cooling effect does occur it wouldn't start to touch the average heating we've introduced through climate change.
That long Wikipedia article conveys quite well how there isn't consensus. We don't know how bad it would be, because our various best models give different results. But to say it's not a sure thing is different from saying "nuclear winter isn't real," which suggests a consensus that it won't happen.