That's not how it works. See the Conservatives/PCs in Alberta, and Social Credit before them. Combined, those two parties controlled Alberta for like ¾ of a century.

It's quite possible being in the spotlight as the official opposition for the next 4 years will give lots of opportunity for scandals to tear the party apart.

Global economic factors will likely play a large role. If inflation stays under control and housing prices come down to keep young people in BC, the NDP could win in a landslide. If Trump is elected and it tanks the North American economy then either the NDP will be blamed for BC's economy and get crushed, or viewers will turn against the authoritarianism they're seeing South of the border and the NDP could cruise to an easy majority.