26
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
this post was submitted on 23 Oct 2024
26 points (70.3% liked)
politics
19244 readers
2134 users here now
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
There isn't much new in this essay, which makes sense since Silver typically avoids getting too far away from the data and the data right now is "toss-up." (Electoral college swing states, obviously - Harris will win the popular vote for sure, but who cares what the majority of Americans think, right?)
But I agree with the core thesis - my gut says Trump. My brain says Harris, but it was wrong in 2016. I committed an extreme sampling error and had too much faith in my fellow Americans' ability to spot and not vote for the obvious conman.
Now that he is a convicted felon, with the accumulated data from his first administration confirming him as a fascist, J6, two impeachments, racist comments, stolen documents, civil fraud, increased evidence of Russian connections, and so on, certainly people haven't gotten dumber fast enough to keep up with how low he's pulled the bar? Yes, they most definitely have. And reading anecdotal swing voter info suggests the Trump Show re-runs are still enough to make it close, and he's also winning the "not being a black woman" race with enough voters to push him over the edge. So shut up brain, you should know better by now.
The bottom line is that I know I'm a pessimist, but I think the last 8 years have merged that Venn diagram with the one for "realist." I wish America was smarter, better, and more worthy, but it's probably not. I hope so hard that I'm wrong, and that everyone votes.
If it makes you feel better, Harris is now well within the margin of error for the popular vote as well, so she could even possibly lose that.
Ah, that's a relief!
😊
Huh? Which pollster is claiming that? This article from 3 days ago seems to indicate the opposite - Harris is highly unlikely to lose the popular vote but the EC is very much still up in the air.
California has a lot of people who vote, it's tough to make up that margin.
Nate Silver's model, which is literally the first linked model in the article you shared, has Harris up by 1.5% in national polling. The margin of error is 3%. That's called being "well within the margin of error."
The same model has Trump with a 5.9% higher chance than Harris of winning the electoral college.
National polling isn't the same as a poll designed to predict the popular vote. Biden won in 2020 by 7 MILLION votes. Even Clinton beat Trump by nearly 3 million votes. The popular vote and the election results are decided by completely different factors, pollsters aren't soliciting people outside of swing states right now because nobody gives a fuck what a random Californian or Missourian thinks at the moment.
What are you even talking about? Yes, Biden led in the popular vote by seven million, by over 4%. He actually win, i.e. in the EC, by about 80,000 votes. Harris is currently polling significantly worse than Biden across both categories.