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this post was submitted on 30 Jul 2023
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Trump lost the Senate in 2018, the presidency in 2020, and the republicans managed a wet fart in 2022 with Trump's candidates in particular tanking hard.
Trump absolutely has a base of support that's not going anywhere but he no longer has the incumbent advantage, the "Unknown Quantity" advantage, or the "I'm not currently under multiple felony indictments" advantage.
Lots of people voted for Trump in 2016 and then went on to vote for Biden in 2020. I don't see anything that indicates any of those voters would go back to Trump. He's not offering anything new or exciting.
All that is not to say we should be complacent. I just don't think we should be listening to people that say Trump has some big advantage 15 months out from the election. If anything, he's going to get more unfocused and distracted as indictments pile up.
All of those factors were going against the dems in 2022 and they still managed to outperform expectations. The Republicans have the bigots and the fundamentalists locked up. They have nothing else to offer to anyone else though. They have no legislative accomplishments, their last president (and current frontrunnner) seriously fucked up the response to the worst pandemic in 100 years, and then his supporters stormed Congress.
The average voter will put up with a lot but any one of those strikes would be enough to make them think twice, let alone three. There's no such thing as an undecided voter when Trump is in the race.