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this post was submitted on 15 Nov 2024
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Almost 100,000 in Michigan alone likely flipped the swing state.
https://theconversation.com/voters-in-arab-american-strongholds-likely-tipped-michigan-in-trumps-favor-242854
Looks like Harris did lose by about 79,000 votes in Michigan.
Comparatively, about 44,500 went to Stein.
We don't ultimately know how the uncommitted movement voted. If they were a monolith throughout, we'd expect 100k for Stein. If some abstained and some voted for Harris or Trump, that would've split the movement.
If all of Stein's voters went to Harris, however, that wouldn't have changed the outcome. Harris would have still been short ~34,400. So if you wanted to make the argument that the uncommitted movement was a voting block, then the entire ~44k block voting for Harris wouldn't have changed the outcome.
Overall I don't see Michigan outcomes changing my argument. If Dems were more persuasive, even if they lied about Gaza, they could have sweeped the nation. And even if the uncommitteds chose the lesser of two evils, Kamala still lost all other swing states. You can't chock the outcomes of those states up to the uncommitteds, because the largest organizational presence was in Michigan.