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I have a buddy who's been eating/sleeping/breathing this war and, hands down, cheap and reliable FPV drones have changed how warfare is done. It's the main reason why trench warfare came back, and one of the things that fucked Russia up in the mid-term. Apparently they have a long-standing strategy that involves armor and something something something that my buddy explained and I don't remember, but because there's always drones watching every inch of the front at all times, Ukraine was able to bust that strat by being able to dial in artillery fast and early. At least, that's how I'm remembering what was explained.
It's not rly the ability of drones to observe that makes them so strong, but the ability to attack. Russia's air defense is unable to stop a drone swarm, especially because its something the world hasn't yet seen. And if two drones armed with explosives take down a bigass helicopter, that's a massive win.
A few weeks ago, Ukraine decimated an oil refinery on russian territory with a swarm of drones of which only 40% were taken down by the russian air defense.
I think it might be more fair to say that it isn't just the ability to observe. Drones have absolutely transformed the modern battlefield.
Certainly true. But observing is something we could do for a long time with satellites.
We're in agreement here. I'm not saying new technology is useless, I'm saying there aren't any wonder weapons (or wonder communication systems) that would have given Ukraine a decisive advantage.
Long-term, it's still a matter of which side can outproduce the other when it comes to the cheap and reliable equipment we're talking about. At this point that's clearly Russia.