this post was submitted on 15 Mar 2025
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Archive: https://archive.is/2025.03.15-220605/https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/03/15/in-poland-the-far-right-on-the-offensive-two-months-ahead-of-the-presidential-election_6739194_4.html

With two months to go before the presidential election, polls show a rise in popularity for Mentzen, who is taking advantage of the weakness of his rival on the right, Karol Nawrocki, chosen by the PiS, but a newcomer to politics and little known to the general public. According to a Pollster Institute survey conducted from March 7 to 9, the Konfederacja candidate would narrowly beat his PiS opponent in the first round (22% vs. 21%) and could therefore face Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski in the second round. Backed by Tusk's Civic Coalition (KO), Trzaskowski is credited with 37% of the vote in the first round. In the 2020 presidential election, Konfederacja candidate Krzysztof Bosak obtained 6.8%.

"I remain cautious with polls," said political scientist Radoslaw Marzecki, professor at the University of the National Education Commission, Krakow. In the run-up to the 2023 parliamentary elections, Konfederacja had seen a surge in voting intentions, nearly reaching 15% in July 2023, only to secure just 7% at the ballot box three months later.

The far-right party made a real breakthrough in the June 2024 European elections, securing 12%. Of its six MEPs, three have joined the Europe of Sovereign Nations Group, where they sit alongside members of the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. Meanwhile, two sit with the Rassemblement National in the Patriots for Europe group, and one is in the non-attached group.

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[–] misk@sopuli.xyz 12 points 22 hours ago (1 children)

Poland, IBRiS poll (reputable):

Presidential election

  • Trzaskowski (PO-EPP): 39% (-4)
  • Nawrocki (PiS-ECR): 25% (-5)
  • Mentzen (Kon-ESN|PfE): 17% (+7)
  • Hołownia (PL2050-RE): 8% (+1)
  • Biejat (NL-S&D): 6% (+1)
  • ...

+/- vs. 17-24 January 2025

Fieldwork: 4-5 March 2025

Sample size: 1,000

[–] SnowChickenFlake@sh.itjust.works 7 points 19 hours ago* (last edited 19 hours ago) (1 children)

I can tell you that the Anti-EU candidates are Nawrocki and Mentzen, both of which are Right wing,

I would say that Mentzen is furthest right of the five, and is more popular with younger voters,

whereas the older part of the population with conservative worldview is more willing to vote for Nawrocki

Trzaskowski and Hołownia are Centrist and definetely more pro-EU than the ones listed above,

whereas Biejat here is the most left-winged candidate of the five that SubOP provided

[–] misk@sopuli.xyz 4 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago) (1 children)

Please stop calling Trzaskowski and Hołownia centre. Hołownia was an altar boy and ran Catholic TV programs. His conciliatory tone serves to preserve status quo which in Western European terms would be classified as something beyond far right. Ask Trzaskowski if he’s for marriage equality, something adopted by conservatives in Western Europe years ago and you’ll be surprised he doesn’t support right to adoption. Both are allied with PSL who conveniently blocks any progressive reform and are mostly concerned with passing real estate laws that benefit property developers. Economic policies supported by both are as neoliberal as they get which can only lead to Mentzen winning later on anyway.

Both Nawrocki and Trzaskowski are adapting to Mentzen by copying him. Hołownia already copied him in last elections. Biejat represents neoliberal post-communists whose economic program is not that different from Konfederacja in practice but it’s dressed in a rainbow suit.

The left candidate (can be labelled as actual socdem) polls at 1-2% but he’s a big city kind so regular folks outside of Warsaw will never trust him. He also made sure his internal competition is barred from party elections last year but the party would split in half again if that competition won so it’s just impossible to do leftist politics here.

Please send help.

Didn't want to include too much information in ine comment, but yeah.. you're right