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A COBOL programmer explains that this migration is impossible without catastrophe unless they want to destroy social security.
(lemmy.world)
this post was submitted on 29 Mar 2025
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Of course this will fail. Everyone with a recognizable skill level in programming will tell you that. That's why Musk probably uses kids that have not achieved the necessary skills to know that.
Good that this is not my social security system they are breaking, and the biggest threat to me is me overeating on popcorn.
But that's why he has kids running the place. They think they can do it in a few months. Never going to happen. But they have confidence and that's what matters, not skill or common sense.
Even as a software dev with decades of experience I still chronically underestimate projects by like half, and even I agree the idea of replacing the social security data processing system in under a year is ridiculous.
I solved that estimation problem years ago.
Now I double all my estimates and then add 20pct for slack
LOL I've heard a rule of thumb to double it, also to quadruple it, and one guy said multiply it by five.
I usually take a realistic estimate and multiply it by π.