Unless they change away from using cheap potentiometers, it will.

For those not aware: A potentiometer ("pot" from here on out) is effectively a resistor where you move a contact back and forth. When it is at one end, the resistance is very low because electricity barely moves through the resistive material (often graphite). When it is at the other end, the electricity needs to move throughout the entire stretch of graphite. With very basic math you can figure out what percentage X and Y you are at which translated to analog movement.

Designed well? The contact moves across the resistive material in a way where there is no damage (scraping). Given infinite time it will eventually become a problem but that is well beyond the lifecycle of the console.

So why do analog sticks wear out so fast? Because they aren't enclosed systems. Dirt and dust WILL get into the chamber and then it gets caught between the contact and the material and scrapes up said material. This leads to drift in the sense that dirt causes the contact to stick and loss of precision as material is scraped off. That is why electric contact cleaner was a great stopgap but couldn't actually repair any damage.

So why is the switch in particular so shit at this? Because an xbox or playstation controller has a big rigid plastic cover that more or less seals the pot off from the environment. It isn't perfect but you are getting very little dirt and dust into the controller and up that dome.

The switch? It is a rubber flap over the joycon that you can lift up with your finger. Great for cleaning, horrible for keeping clean.

I haven't looked too close at the new joycons but I would be shocked if they changed that design. So they will almost definitely still suffer from excessive drift REAL fast.