Saturday 19: 12:00β12:15 β 17:05β17:45
The second and last mountain stage in the PyrΓ©nΓ©es. A flat start, and then a hell of 4 passes in a row with little (false) flat in between, starting with the Tourmalet and including climbing Peyresourde again from the same side (not sure Evenepoel will fancy coming back on this slope!).
Weather shall be significantly cooler than on the previous days, and it should be drizzling.
Beware: the stage starts earlier than usual (still not in the morning, though).
Looking at the conditions so far, I think your prediction of a breakaway win has more going for it. UAE might not consider another stage win as worth the risk on these downhill sections, it looks quite dangerous out there.
L. Martinez did a peculiarly bad descent of the Tourmalet, staying too upright on his bike for his own good (and for the good of his trajectories). Hard to say from TV cameras whether the fog played a role in that.